The Brothers Austrian

Peter Schiff’s campaign headquarters was packed to the point where you literally could not move, mind you it was on a blustery 19 degree Thursday night!

Here is some video footage of the event.

Wendall Wilkie Uncategorized

Dr. Rand Paul, fighting for the revival of the Constitution.

http://www.randpaul2010.com/

Donate today, December 16th 2009.

Tomorrow, Peter Schiff, opens his campaign headquarters; hope to see you all there.

http://schiffforsenate.com/

Wendall Wilkie Politics money bomb, Peter Schiff, Rand Paul

The folks over at Matterhon Asset Management lay out the many  gold misconceptions in a fabulous paper titled–GOLD IS NOT GOING UP— PAPER MONEY IS GOING DOWN!

The US dollar has lost 98% of its value in less a 100 years, the underemployment rate is at 17%. Mr. Bernanke, you may want to rethink your list of FED accomplishments.

At the end of the day paper money returns to its intrinsic value….$0.

Wendall Wilkie Gold bernanke, fed, Gold

A great article posted in WSJ by Bob Gelfond, brought to me by Cafe Hayek briefly lays suggests that the governments influence over the money supply can have a disastrous role. The problem is that he failed to incorporate some very important terminology from Austrian Business Cycle Thoery: malinvestment.

Us Austrians need to point people to fact that malinvestment is the single most destructive product of fiat currencies.

Recently I went to a panel discussion that included UBS’s Art Cashin. He described how Y2K’s money expansion helped lead to a bubble: the run up in tech stocks at the turn of the century and later a housing boom. As we know such investments  cost many investors dearly. What Cashin was describing was a classic case of malinvestment, however he, as well as the other panelists, coined such scenario’s as bubbles.  I wish we could somehow get prominant speakers to use ABCT terminology such as malinvestment instead of terms like “bubbles” to draw people into reading more Von Mises literature. The literature so compelling I feel it would be hard not to grow are ranks exponentially in the near future.

Wendall Wilkie Federal Reserve Bob Gelfound, Cafe Hayek, money supply

Admittedly I am a little soft when it comes to econometrics (what essentially is seen as modern economics), OK EXTREMELY SOFT… but as a history major I am extremely drawn to the data. Data is statistical history and nothing more as Von Mises illustrated (Human Action: Prices XVI). Traders, economists, and the Fed unlike seem to have skipped this chapter in Human Action.

What is most important is what is driving forces behind the data. Modern day economists are drawn to the data without taking into account the human factors that provided them with the numbers, without evaluating the history properly. As a history major I am trained to look at human intentions; the why and how’s that can help us understand where the data came from. Data is nothing more then statistical history and nothing more. What is most important is what is driving forces behind the data, aka the HUMAN ACTION.

Let me get right to the point.

I think it would behoove money managers to look back at the history of , prices and focus on the praxeological reasons as to how and why the prices were driven to given level. When discussing the recent 3.5% so called recession ending GDP number Peter Schiff pointed out:

During the decade that corresponds to the Great Depression, annual GNP expanded for six years and contracted for four. After nose-diving in the early years of the decade, GNP turned positive in 1934 and then logged three more years of solid growth (the four year average annual growth rate was 8.5%). But does anyone really believe the Great Depression ended in 1934, when the economy first stopped contracting? Unemployment reached 19% in 1938, nearly the peak of the entire Depression, almost a full decade after the stock market crashed! Why will we be so much luckier this time around?

Currently U3 unemployment is at 9.7% and U6 is at 17%. Now some say that U6 measure is most like the Great Depression 1938 as unemployment was calculated much differently at the time and suggest that is functional equivalent of the methodology that was used in the 1930’s.   According to N. Andrews such suggestions may be factually incorrect. Current U3 measures are actually most like 1930  (a year after the 1929 collapse in which the estimated U3 spike from 5 to 10%…sound familiar?).

Unemployment is at 9.7% or 17% to depending on how you look at it. Helicopter Ben says that he won’t REPEAT the mistakes that Japan made and send this country into a deflationary spiral. Obama is not going to take his foot off the money producing accelerator like the Japanese did briefly in 1998 sending the Nikkei into a tailspin (the proverbial Dump Japan Era). But let me leave you with this, where did the money printing philosophy get Japan? Hint

I keep hearing about a V-Shape recovery, perhaps this nothing more then government induced drunken zig zag.

The Street seems to believe that the Fed can control the situation and will pull the liquidity from the system. But how can we let interest rates rise politically? Rising interest equals more defaults and more homeless Americans. Eventually we will forced take our medicine and you will get deflation, but it won’t in terms of dollars.

Actually come to think of it, some day I will wall paper my man den using dollar’s, that way all that expensive paper doesn’t go to waste.

Oh yeah, so what has history shown is the cards for this money manager: rise in gold prices, increasing hostility finger pointing, and dare a say warfare? God, I hope not.

Wendall Wilkie History, Uncategorized history majors, money managers, Peter Schiff, The Great Depression

Gold goes up because people don’t trust governments to not spend money and we certainly don’t them with our capital (money supply). End of story. That’s the answer plain and simple. We are going to getting massive deflation, but not deflation in US $ terms, deflation in the price of assets in onces of GOOOLLLDDDDD!

Take a look at the rate of gold appreciation to the MZM (money at zero maturity).

Remember money is only a refection of our human capital. Money is medium of exchange, I exchange my hours on a trading desk for Joe the plumbers labor to fix my toilet.

Spend your dollar or use them the to wipe your ass, its your choice.

Wendall Wilkie Gold, Uncategorized Peter Schiff

The Zero Hedge posting community continues to impress Wendall Wilkie.

Wendall Wilkie Uncategorized

RJ Tweeted this earlier today. The end of the video lists some little known politicians running campaigns with libertarian tint.

Wendall Wilkie Politics, Uncategorized RJ Harris, RJ Harris 2010

Jon Brodeux of Cafe Hayek has a nice critique to Amar Bhide’s, Let’s Break Up the Fed that appeared in the WSJ on July 29th. on Cafe Hayek.

Click here to read.

Cheers

Wendall Wilkie Uncategorized

In response to a few postings by my brother, I am going to aggregate the four liberty loving candidates looking to come (back) to Washington after the 2010 elections.

Senate:
Dr. Rand Paul – Kentucky, still undecided, big announcement soon. May challenge Trey Grayson who will likely have establishment support in the GOP primary.
Website – Twitter

Peter Schiff – Connecticut, famous investor who predicted the economic meltdown from an Austrian lens in the face of ridiculing talking heads.
Website – Twitter

House:
Dr. Ron Paul – Texas’s 14th District, you all know him

Adam Kokesh – New Mexico’s 3rd District, no real GOP primary opponent yet.  Faces freshman incumbent Ben Ray Lujan.
Website – Twitter

RJ Harris – Oklahoma’s 4th District, taking on heavyweight Tom Cole in GOP primary.
Website – Twitter

Jake Towne – Pennsylvania’s 15th District, going it as an independent, “Simply put, I am for liberty. I hate war. I love life. And I have no fear.”
Website – Twitter

Dr. Mike Vasovski – South Carolina’s 3rd District, In a wide open GOP primary battle.  Seat currently held by GOP’s Gresham Barrett.
Website

Teacherman Politics, Uncategorized candidates, harris, kokesh, Liberty, paul, schiff, towne, vasovski