The Brothers Austrian

“The chains of habit are too weak to be felt until they are too strong to be broken.”
–Samuel Johnson

U.S. consumption has driven global growth for years. South Pacific countries sold us their spare capacity which drove and modernized their economies at a seemingly unrealistic pace. Foreigners have been building dollar reserves for decades. Many of those countries have rightly realized that perhaps they should use those dollars to buy U.S. assets rather than hold treasuries. It is one thing to exploit foreign labor, but now foreigners have put their surpluses (their money/capital) to work buying up U.S. assets, thus exploiting us. Touché. Now, profits generated from the selling to the U.S. consumer go oversees rather than staying here.

The consumer was being squeezed on all sides entering into 2008. Higher fuel prices, falling housing prices, stagnant wages, higher unemployment, and rising food costs.

Household debt as a percentage of GDP is almost 100% as the below chart illustrates.

Pundits argued that rising household net worth would allow spending to continue forever and ever as net worth continued it climb in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Now household net worth is falling at an unprecedented rate. In 2008 household net worth declined an astounding to $11.2 trillion to $51.5 trillion (Random Factoid $trillion in household net worth vs. 600 trillion in outstanding derivatives in the U.S.).  In 2007, residential mortgages outstanding, in percentage terms   were equivalent to 78% of US GDP. In 2006 residential mortgages made up an outstanding 36% of total U.S. debt outstanding. When this crisis started in 2007 Gary Shilling said that we would need vacant supply to fall below 600k homes now he estimates that there currently are 2.1 million in excess supply. Shilling estimates that housing prices could fall anther 20% (ughh what’s that going to do to household net worth?).

A sad fact now apparent to most of us, the U.S. consumer is tapped and they are not coming back for years … not months. I am now realizing why the Fed has chosen to monetize this debt, clearly the people who have burrowed(or should I say lent…ah what the hell…both) can’t afford for the Fed not to.

Now let me get this straight…the Fed is going to buy back these mortgages via Fannie and Freddie, an issue treasuries to do so? Now the Fed is going to buy back treasuries (monetizing: printing money) to keep rates down so lenders can then make more loans to people who are insolvent? Meanwhile oil is walking its way back up the ladder towards $100 (granted I believe will break $40 once more) because oil is finite and fiat dollars are not. Food costs are not slowing the way they should if an economy is truly productive, wages are declining, productivity(…well is there such thing as productivity in Never Never land?) is declining and the government is scaring the entrepreneur back into his/her shell with taxes.

Jefferson is rolling over in grave as we speak.

MisesBeliever Federal Reserve, Free trade, General, Real Estate consumer, dollar, foreign labor, trade, treasuries

Have you ever stopped to think about how much efficiently you could have learned something? Or what about when you realize everything you thought you knew was wrong? I am sure some very smart people were convinced the world was flat and were quite perturbed when learned the world was actually round. Well I would say I just realized everything that I had been taught/thought about the history of the U.S. was dead wrong.

At Syracuse University, as a history major, I was taught that it was Roosevelt’s quarterbacking in the 30′s that helped the U.S. recovery from the depression. I was essentially taught, like the rest of us, that fiat monetary system created by the Federal Reserve was necessary to provide the economy the “flexibility” to soften the blows that were supposedly considered a natural occurrence of the market (this is painful to think about). If you are reading the blog, you probably have had the experience that I had when I discovered the plethora of readings that come from what is known as the “Austrian” school of economic thought. My first reading was Economic Policy: Thoughts for today and Tomorrow. From there it all just snowballed for me. Hayek, Hazlitt, Rothbard. But honestly it really only took me about the first 25 pages of that first Von Mises book and I was hooked. Like I had discovered a new religion and that I was saved….and then I immediately felt as if I had been robbed.

I thought to myself, “How could I not have heard of this school thought…I was a double major.” One would think that if you majored in both political science and history that I would have come across this “Austrian” school of thought. This just did not make sense.

What I do realize is that history is written by the victors. America came out of the WWII the strongest nation which had seemingly won WWII (no one really won, everyone lost in my opinion). We had amassed an enormous amount of wealth throughout the 19th and early 20th century. Subsequently although Roosevelt was in charge during the majority of America’s most prolonged down turn he and his “brain trust” are viewed as saviors.

What’s my point? I honestly believe that Mr. Obama and Mr. Bernanke are two of America’s best and brightest, however their current “humanactions” are a mold/consequence  of their life experiences. Obama happened to attend a college that teaches its students to believe that they know better than the collective. They believe can smooth out market upheaval with their policies rather than recognizing its their policy  their school of thought that caused the problems.   What if Mr. Bernanke was scientist that could have cured cancer but he was instead taught that cancer can’t be cured but merely slowed down and then at very end of his life he realizes he could have cured cancer all along but he was taught it can only be slowed down.

This is my glass have full post. I will try not to succomb to the idea (at least not tonight) that this mess came about because politicians and other self interested individuals were/are trying retain their power through inflation and wealth redistribution.

MisesBeliever Entrepreneurship, Federal Reserve, Free trade, General, History, Real Estate austrian, education, Federal Reserve, hayek, Hazlitt, syracuse university

Picking up off a recent blog article that made some waves, this post is in support of H.R. 1207.  Ron Paul introduced the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009 last week.  According to Paul, the bill is the first step to open up the Fed’s ‘opaque’ operations to the public.  As Rothbard put it in The Case Against the Fed,

By far the most secret and least accountable operation of the federal government is not, as one might expect, the CIA, DIA, or some other super-secret intelligence agency. The CIA and other intelligence operations are under control of the Congress. They are accountable: a Congressional committee supervises these operations, controls their budgets, and is informed of their covert activities. It is true that the committee hearings and activities are closed to the public; but at least the people’s representatives in Congress insure some accountability for these secret agencies. It is little known, however, that there is a federal agency that tops the others in secrecy by a country mile. The Federal Reserve System is accountable to no one; it has no budget; it is subject to no audit; and no Congressional  Committee knows of, or can truly supervise, its operations. The Federal Reserve, virtually in total control of the nation’s vital monetary system, is accountable to nobody—and this strange situation, if acknowledged at all, is invariably trumpeted as a virtue.

Teacherman Federal Reserve, Politics Federal Reserve, ron paul, rothbard, transparency

Has anyone ever noticed that rarely do you ever hear or see Ron Paul’s testimony either on Bloomberg or CNBC? Especially recently? Is it possible that the establishment wants to keep him quiet and out of public sight as much as possible? Am I being too much of a conspiracy theorist to think that the establishment sees Ron Paul as dangerous? Here is a statement by Ron Paul to Congress back in 2002:

Though the Federal Reserve policy harms the average American, it benefits those in a position to take advantage of the cycles in monetary policy. The main beneficiaries are those who receive access to artificially inflated money and/or credit before the inflationary effects of the policy impact the entire economy. Federal Reserve policies also benefit big spending politicians who use the inflated currency created by the Fed to hide the true costs of the welfare-warfare state. It is time for Congress to put the interests of the American people ahead of the special interests and their own appetite for big government.

Abolishing the Federal Reserve will allow Congress to reassert its constitutional authority over monetary policy. The United States Constitution grants to Congress the authority to coin money and regulate the value of the currency. The Constitution does not give Congress the authority to delegate control over monetary policy to a central bank. Furthermore, the Constitution certainly does not empower the federal government to erode the American standard of living via an inflationary monetary policy.

In fact, Congress’ constitutional mandate regarding monetary policy should only permit currency backed by stable commodities such as silver and gold to be used as legal tender. Therefore, abolishing the Federal Reserve and returning to a constitutional system will enable America to return to the type of monetary system envisioned by our nation’s founders: one where the value of money is consistent because it is tied to a commodity such as gold.  Such a monetary system is the basis of a true free-market economy.

In conclusion, Mr. Speaker, I urge my colleagues to stand up for working Americans by putting an end to the manipulation of the money supply which erodes Americans’ standard of living, enlarges big government, and enriches well-connected elites, by cosponsoring my legislation to abolish the Federal Reserve.

In the Case Against the Fed, Rothbard warns against the dangers of the fractional banking system. He cautions that fractional banking is legalized embezzlement a ponzi scheme. Banks take your deposits and loan them to other people, thus creating money that they don’t have, with money that isn’t theirs. Essentially every bank that practices  fractional reserve banking is insolvent.  The scheme will eventually be exposed by those that start to understand the fraudulent activity that banks are taking part in when they go to redeem their money and cannot get it back upon demand.

I believe that Ron Paul is seen as menace to this scheme. That perhaps people know that his opinions are given credence by the media and that perhaps the bank runs that Rothbard warns are inevitable will be touched off.   General Electric CNBC as well as other channels, fearing the anarchy that would be created in the wake of bank runs, decide to not give him the prime time that other congressmen get.

MisesBeliever Federal Reserve, Politics cnbc, congress, congressmen, fractional reserve banking, media, ron paul, rothbard