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	<title>The Brothers Austrian &#187; bond market</title>
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	<description>An economics blog in the Austrian tradition, written by two brothers, one teacher and one bond trader</description>
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		<title>The possible unseens of the auto bailout</title>
		<link>http://www.brothersaustrian.com/the-possible-unseens-of-the-auto-bailout/</link>
		<comments>http://www.brothersaustrian.com/the-possible-unseens-of-the-auto-bailout/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 01:46:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>MisesBeliever</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Government Spending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interventionism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[auto industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bail out]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bond market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[citigroup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[henry hazlitt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[obama button]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.brothersaustrian.com/?p=229</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What haunted Henry Hazlitt, still haunts us today: Governments focusing on only what the immediate effects of a policy will be. He refers to their actions as &#8220;half truths&#8221;. The seen and unseen. The seen of this bailout is that a few hundred thousand auto workers are still employed and the employees/retirees will have benefits. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What haunted Henry Hazlitt, still haunts us today: Governments focusing on only what the immediate effects of a policy will be. He refers to their actions as &#8220;half truths&#8221;. The seen and unseen. The seen of this bailout is that a few hundred thousand auto workers are still employed and the employees/retirees will have benefits.</p>
<p><strong>The unseen:</strong> What about the workers that are not part of the auto industry that did get laid off? What about the worker whose 401k is down 40% with no pension plan? What about the guy who saves and saves and saves, only to have the value of savings dwindle via inflation in order to pay for the bailout of the auto worker (I am sorry let&#8217;s be honest here, this is a bailout of a group of people that have political pull, not the saving of a so called iconic &#8220;American&#8221; industry)?  What about the capital resources that are redirected to the auto sector versus another, more viable sector? What about the effect on bond investors?</p>
<p>In a NYT op-ed piece James Glassman claims that this might <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/30/opinion/30glassman.html?ref=todayspaper"> &#8220;Drive the bond market to ruin&#8221;.</a> This is the what I call the &#8220;Obama Button&#8221;.  It&#8217;s like the reset button. What would happen if we pressed the reset button? Who knows right? All bets are off! If I am a bond investor I have to price in whether or not an industry will be &#8220;bailed out&#8221;.  While the immediate effect is saving a few hundred thousand jobs, the long term effect is that there will be more market volatility because we never no who is next to be part of our &#8220;bailout nation&#8221; or even how to price the possibility of a bailout. Will the bailout lead to the bonds being &#8220;made whole&#8221; like they were for Citigroup or will do I price in huge discount in case the government tries to super cede me in the capital structure (think Chrysler secured bondholders).</p>
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